Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The Global Outlook for 2010

2010 is going to be a mixed-kind of year. We are still witnessing major troubles primarily in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, Dubai, Japan, and the US. But, on the other hand, undoubtedly, they all will fight back, because they ought to. There is no other choice. This is primarily a capitalistic world, which doesn't give in to pessimism. We have seen unprecedented efforts by the Central Banks and Governments worldwide. All those efforts will pay off, albeit slowly but surely. There will again be booms and busts, after all that's the cycle and that is its intrinsic nature. Isn't it? Let's be patient, and hold our grounds firmly. Good luck to all of us, as we see the waning of the modern world's second-worst recession!

There will be some pains and upsets in the globalized world, as economies try to "rein in" their Balance of Payments (BOP), especially with other economies, such as China, which cuts its manufacturing-costs at the expense of its competitors and of its buyers as well! But, that's a different story altogether.

Deflation in Japan is another concern. It has become so hard to make money in Japan. So, obviously, insane amounts of funds will outflow from Japan to economies -- especially emerging economies -- that promise robust growth, creating bubbles and then consequently sudden busts! But, is it something extremely wrong? No! It's not! But, inflow and outflow of funds certainly need to be controlled and be well monitored. EXTREME free-flow of funds is a very dangerous thing, because you just never know what's going to happen next! Economies become susceptible to the idiosyncrasies of few "funds managers!" They take the world economy as "HOSTAGE!" Isn't cartel a reality?

I just hope the policy-makers worldwide would fix the root causes of the problems, instead of beating around the bush -- that is trying to fix the symptoms of the problems. Good luck to most of us !