Thursday, February 18, 2010

Telcos Preparing for the Next Low-cost, Low-end Telecoms War


Vodafone has introduced the `cheapest’ mobile phone ever at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) being held in Barcelona. The handset, aimed for the developing countries, will be initially launched in India, Turkey, and eight African countries including Lesotho, Kenya, and Ghana. The phone is available for less than USD 15 and allows voice calls, SMS as well as mobile payment services. An expensive version of the phone has a color screen and FM radio and is priced at USD 20.

Reliance Communications (RCOM), India’s second biggest mobile communications company, has signed a deal with Huawei to purchase two million CDMA handsets worth INR 3.4 billion (USD 73.27 million). The handsets are priced in a range of INR 1700 (USD 36.63) to INR 1950 (USD 42.02) each unit and are equipped with camera and FM radio. RCOM plans to launch these handsets in Tier-II and Tier-III cities in India. (1 USD = 46.40 INR).

Now, as mobile call-rates in India are already close to free, a new wave of low-cost, low-end war is apparently emerging on the horizon to capture even the remotest of countrymen and countrywomen. Once the telcos are satiated that not even a single Indian is left without having a mobile phone in hand, a new wave of unimaginably massive, extremely painful telecoms market-consolidation will happen. There will then be only two options: buy or get sold! And, such buying and selling will happen based on the market segments the telcos would like to play in and play with. Telcos valuations will be computed almost linearly: X number of customers times $Y per customer – and this will be based on customer segmentation -- plus, the net assets, if any. That’s it. Only the best and biggest will survive the onslaught "massacre." Thus, the survivors will live happily ever after, until the next disruptive technologies emerge on the markets. The end of the saga!

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